Impact Assessment

Assessing the Impact of the Kenya BDS and Horticulture Development Center Projects - Baseline Design (2004) and Report (2005)

    Horticulture production (fresh fruits, vegetables, and cut flowers) is Kenya's third most important foreign exchange earner. To increase rural household incomes, USAID/Kenya is funding two projects that promote growth in Kenya's tree fruit sub-sector and encourage smallholder participation in that value chain - the Kenya Business Development Services (BDS) project (Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Emerging Markets Ltd.) and the Horticulture Development Center (Fintrac).

    The Impact Assessment study of these two projects is based on a causal model of impact that demonstrates how project facilitation activities promoting commercially viable solutions can address constraints to smallholder participation and value chain competitiveness. The quantitative component involves a longitudinal survey of smallholder MSE tree fruit producers with data collection over two years, and a review of secondary market level information on treefruit production and sale. The qualitative research includes in-depth interviews with value chain actors - smallholder SEs, input suppliers, service providers, lead firm exporters, other buyers, and producer group leaders - and project staff.

    The study assessed the impact of the projects on:
    - Improving the competitiveness of the mango, passion fruit, and avocado sub-sectors;
    - Increasing the integration of micro and small enterprises (farmers and others) into these value chains in a way that contributes to and benefits from increased competitiveness of the tree fruit industry;
    - Developing commercially viable solutions to constraints facing businesses in the targeted industries; and
    - Increasing rural household incomes.

    On the right hand side are the design of the impact assessment study and the baseline report.

    Methods for info gathering
    In-depth interviews, Secondary source research, Provider interviews, SE surveys using a control group, Key informant interviews

    Summary of results
    These projects have taken on a twofold challenge: improving the competitiveness of Kenya tree fruit exports in global markets and increasing the participation of smallholders in the tree fruit value chain. A key question facing both is whether Kenya can stay competitive in global tree fruit markets and maintain a high level of smallholder participation in the value chain.

    The baseline assessment examined whether project-facilitated interventions are having a positive impact on improving the competitiveness of Kenya's tree fruit sub-sector and on integrating smallholders into the value chain. To what extent do project-facilitated interventions contribute to changes in sub-sector competitiveness and in smallholder integration into product markets, input markets, and service markets in the value chain?

    Associated Activities and Documents
    Market Assessment
    »USAID - AFE Kenya (Horticulture) 2001
    Programme Design
    »Kenya BDS Design, USAID/Deloittes, 2004
    »Kenya BDS Implementation, USAID / Emerging Markets Group, 2004-8
    Impact Assessment
    »Recommended Performance Assessment for USAID/Kenya Subsector Development, 2003
    »USAID Private Sector Development Impact Assessment Initiative, 2007-